If there is anything to learn from watching award ceremonies, it’s that there is no such thing as a universally good film. Awards are all about bell-curves and relativity, the way grades in school aren’t really a good judge of a person’s intelligence or achievement. It depends, unfortunately, on how well or badly everyone else around you did. But while this system is flawed, it is quite impossible to judge one’s merit – quality or talent – any other way.
Why do we say this? Simply because films that win awards at one ceremony hardly ever win in another (we’re referring to ceremonies that actually matter). Take The Golden Globes and The Academy Awards, for example. It is this observation, this pattern, that has led movie fanatics and critics to identify other patterns that may present a clue as to who and which film will go home with a golden statue in hand.
History, after all, is fond of repeating itself.
But say you haven’t been following the Golden Globes, or the Oscars, for the past ten years. Yet you’ve just made a bet with someone, convinced quality is quality, that something you enjoyed watching would certainly be recognised at one of the most prestigious (if not the MOST prestigious) ceremonies celebrating the film industry. That’ll probably happen in your universe, but not so much in a competitive world where everything from promotional activities to the end product counts. People’s reputations are at stake here. Some films were even made with the motivation of winning, hence the term “Oscar bait”. There’s tough competition. Face it, that five bucks you put down probably isn’t going to return to your pocket.
No point crying over spilt milk – here are some Oscar prediction tips to help you make a better informed choice next time.

The flashier the better
This is kind of the reason how the term “Oscar bait” came about. Is the movie about gays? Transsexuals? Someone handicapped? A mentally challenged person? Someone with an obsessive-compulsive disorder? They’ll usually win something – people often have a fascination with the unusual and the controversial.
Travelling back in time
All part of the nostalgia, for those above the age of 45 – and part of the fascination, for those under. Period pieces practically buy their Oscars – they just need to hire enough historians and art directors to make something look authentically vintage. If you’re accurate and flamboyant enough, you’ll probably bag all the art and design awards.
Sympathy win
This is reserved only for actors who’ve risen from their ashes, returned from the dead, you name it. Spent the last ten years battling a drug problem? Here’s a statue to prove that Oscar voters have a heart, even if it means they just feel sorry for you.
Release dates
The memory factor comes into play – films released nearer (but before, obviously) to the Oscars are fresher in voters’ minds, and tend to be movies released after September. Silence of the Lambs (released February in the USA) and Forrest Gump (released July) are some exceptions.
Hair colour
Now this calls for a dumb blonde joke, and I know hair colour these days are just a matter of which dye one decides to pour on one’s scalp, but out of the 40 winners of acting over the past 10 years, only six were blond at the time when they won Oscars.
Older men, younger women
Yep.
Best Animated Feature Film
This category was introduced for the first time in 2001, and to date, five Pixar animated films have been nominated for the category, three of which won the title. Pixar’s closest competitor is Dreamworks SKG, whose titles were nominated five times, two of which won the title. You don’t need to be a genius to know that WALL-E will win this year, however.
Best Picture + Screenplay
The history of this happening aren’t that many, but hey, it’s logical. A good screenplay means everyone gets to work with quality material. Sure, you need a competent director and a good cast, but take this into consideration if you’re really desperate.




It seems a little strange how My Family My Heart received the little promotion it did. The movie, after all, stars Mark Lee, Tan Lee Pen (affectionately also known as Chen Liping or Aiyoyo Lao shi) and Megan Zheng, the latter known for her breakthrough role in Homerun. In fact, her performance was so great, it garnered an award for Best New Performer at 2003’s Golden Horse Film Festival. I’m not suggesting this young talent ought to be saturating our local TV and movie scene, but surely she has not come this far just to star in direct-to-video releases? It’s a little disconcerting to know that support for the local film industry extends to just Jack Neo, Royston Tan, and Eric Khoo.






SolShine7 1:07 pm on January 27, 2009 Permalink
Never heard of this one, I’ll have to check it out.